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- Very interesting as a period piece, Ishihara envisions a 21st Century with Japan in the vanguard.
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John Rekenthaler () has been researching the fund industry since 1988. He is now a columnist for Morningstar.com and a member of Morningstar’s investment research department. John is quick to point out that while Morningstar typically agrees with the views of the Rekenthaler Report, his views are his own. Over the past several years, American stocks have excelled. Such performance has defied the institutional consensus.
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In summary, a bet on American ingenuity is a bet on the continued success of the technology sector. Prospects for the rest of the U.S. stock market appear to be no better or worse than what lies elsewhere. I wondered how much of the American advantage owed to recent results.
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A primary source of funding for education exchanges … Any Native American U.S. citizen that is a member or descendant of a state or federally recognized tribe with at least a 2.0 grade point average, and enrolled as a full-time student can apply for a scholarship. This book sold millions when it was published in Japan. Book was translated to Korean and Chinese and sold million more.
The era’s other noteworthy aspect was its sluggishness. Real annualized U.S. equity returns were 4%, as opposed to the almost 8% average that they have posted over the past 100 years. The U.S. wasn’t an also-ran because it jogged while others sprinted. Instead, it muddled along with the rest of the developed-markets pack through what proved to be a relative bear market. Very interesting as a period piece, Ishihara envisions a 21st Century with Japan in the vanguard.
Consequently, I halved the performance table, with the first section covering the 26-year period from 1970 through 1995, and the second from 1996 through the present. The United States led among the giants, forex volatility calculator outgaining each of the next three largest economies of–to use their 1970 rankings–Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. To address the question, I confined myself to the past half century.
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Compelling writing, even if some of his predictions were wildly wrong. Ishihara’s recommendations for the United States warrant particular scrutiny, as some are issues still being debated today, such as Americans neglecting mass transit and remaining wed to “car culture”. This book provides a cautionary tale of how current success can reduce your ability to navigate an unexpected crisis. Or how good fortune leads to undeserved confidence in one’s abilities.
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The returns were calculated in nominal terms, which is fine for evaluating outcomes within a country, where inflation affects all parties equally. But it fails when comparing results from different countries, which experience different inflation rates. Doing so removed Hong Kong and Singapore from the list, as I could not easily obtain their 52-year inflation rates. Supporting the exchange of viewpoints, expertise and ideas amongst members of the business community at NAF meetings and lectures. Facilitating fundraising in the United States for Dutch cultural and educational institutions.
For example, in 2014, Vanguard’s 10-year market forecast predicted that non-U.S. Stocks would outgain domestic equities by an annualized 2 percentage points. Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo expected a 5-point gap for the next seven years. Morgan, which ranked the future prospects of American stocks dead last among developed markets.
Then, during the ’80s and early ’90s, which were my formative investment years, the U.S. business press crowed about American achievements. Europe was mired in sluggish growth, Japan had succumbed to speculation, but the U.S. thrived. I served my apprenticeship believing that the U.S. held a competitive advantage. Yet its stock market trailed both Japan’s and the U.K.’s.
The most telling point to be made about this book is that Mr. Morita, to his credit, disavowed his participation later on. THE JAPAN THAT CAN SAY “NO” created a minor splash at the time, but I think that today it can be forgotten. If you are looking for a good book on Japan’s situation up to the mid-1990s, you should take a look at “The Emptiness of Japanese Affluence” by Gavan McCormick. That book could be subtitled, “The Japan That Should Have Said No.”
American stocks also outgained Chinese equities, which were re-introduced in 1990. (An earlier incarnation of the Chinese stock market was shuttered in 1949, when the communists took control.) The big dog became bigger. After accounting for the effect of inflation, the five top countries from the nominal-returns chart retained their rankings. Thanks to its low inflation rate, Japan leapfrogged four slots. Conversely, the Mediterranean nations of Spain and Italy slid to the bottom. Although switching to real returns did not alter the U.S.’ position, doing so did improve its relative showing.